Spatial pattern of all cause excess mortality in Swiss districts during the pandemic years 1890, 1918 and 2020

Article Article scientifique Article Spatial pattern of all cause excess mortality in Swiss districts during the pandemic years 1890, 1918 and 2020 eng 2024-10-24 2024-11 author Matthes Katarina Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Institute of Evolutionary Medicine, University of Zurich, Switzerland. Electronic address: katarina.matthes@iem.uzh.ch. 983107 author Floris Joël Institute of Evolutionary Medicine, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Department of History, University of Zurich, Switzerland. author Merzouki Fatma Aziza Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland. 644510 Institut de santé globale (COSPR) author Junker Christoph Federal Statistical Office, Neuchâtel, Switzerland. author Weitkunat Rolf Federal Statistical Office, Neuchâtel, Switzerland. author Rühli Frank Institute of Evolutionary Medicine, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Swiss School of Public Health SSPH+, Zurich, Switzerland. author Keiser Olivia 0000-0001-8191-2789 Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Swiss School of Public Health SSPH+, Zurich, Switzerland. 873427 Institut de santé globale (COSPR) author Staub Kaspar Institute of Evolutionary Medicine, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Swiss School of Public Health SSPH+, Zurich, Switzerland. 100697 10.1016/j.sste.2024.100697 39615976 1877-5845 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877584524000649 Every pandemic is embedded in specific spatial and temporal context. However, spatial patterns have almost always only been considered in the context of one individual pandemic. Until now, there has been limited consideration of spatial similarities or differences between pandemics. In this study, Bayesian spatial models for disease mapping were used to estimate excess mortality for the pandemics of 1890, 1918 and 2020. A robust linear regression was used to assess the association between ecological determinants and excess mortality. Spatial variations of excess mortality across Switzerland were observed in each pandemic, but the spatial patterns differ between the pandemics. Different determinants contribute to excess mortality, and these factors vary between COVID-19 and the previous pandemics. Spatial excess mortality from COVID-19 is most likely due to cultural and SEP differences, whereas in historical pandemics, mobility, pre-existing tuberculosis or remote mountain living likely contributed to spatial excess mortality. Bayesian modeling COVID-19 Disease mapping Pandemic 1890 Pandemic 1918 Spatial analysis Humans Switzerland / epidemiology COVID-19 / mortality COVID-19 / epidemiology Pandemics / history History, 20th Century Bayes Theorem Spatial Analysis SARS-CoV-2 History, 19th Century History, 21st Century Mortality / trends Mortality / history Spatio-Temporal Analysis Cause of Death / trends Dewey 613 66 Institut de santé globale 22A1 false 1246 Maladies infectieuses et modèles mathématiques 988 https://github.com/KaMatthes/UZH_UniGe_Past_Pandemics Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology 51 a84d7768-ffc5-4333-a300-16eb96e06337 Article (Published version) Public Matthes_2024.pdf 6489167 application/pdf CC BY-4.0 7a0796da41217e06471554e950bfc9b79ae2a58ef5bb83b575445e66b0999484 b96a9337-0933-43ac-be59-d6249fe54b59 Supplemental data Public 1-s2.0-S1877584524000649-mmc1.pdf 3609108 application/pdf 67a58935401f55d625bb88185ac539609e7b7bd5915d6a88177e13a73b69d4d9 openAccess Faculté de médecine / Section de médecine clinique / Département de santé et médecine communautaires / Institut de santé globale

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Spatial pattern of all cause excess mortality in Swiss districts during the pandemic years 1890, 1918 and 2020	Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology			2024	12	32

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Matthes, Katarina