Impact of changes in the wind regime on the Caspian sea level fluctuation and its relationship with SOI and NAO

Article Article scientifique Article Impact of changes in the wind regime on the Caspian sea level fluctuation and its relationship with SOI and NAO eng 2025-10-17 author Safarov Elnur 973547 author Bayramov Emil author Safarov Said author Neafie Jessica author Hedjazi Alexandre Babak 647947 Services communs de l'Institut des sciences de l'environnement (ISECO) 36380 10.1038/s41598-025-20346-6 2045-2322 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-20346-6#citeas This study investigates changes in the wind regime over the Caspian region and their impact on sea level fluctuations, utilizing MERRA-2 reanalysis data spanning the period 1980–2023. The analysis revealed no statistically significant variation in average wind speed between the phase of sea level decline (2005–2022) and the preceding phase of sea level rise (1984–2004). However, more detailed examination of specific wind parameters indicated notable shifts: the speed of resultant winds increased by 10.3%, accompanied by a 9.5° change in predominant wind direction, as derived from eastward and northward wind vector components. Furthermore, comparison of resultant wind characteristics with key climatic indices—specifically the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—demonstrated a moderate relationship between wind regime variability and sea level dynamics, including interannual fluctuations. These findings underscore that sea level changes in the Caspian Sea are closely linked to climate variability, mediated in part through alterations in regional wind patterns. Caspian sea River runoff Sea level Climate indices Dewey 333.7-333.9 18 Institut des sciences de l'environnement 0DB false 939 Pôle/Institut Gouvernance de l'environnement et développement territorial Scientific reports 15 85024306-7181-43ff-87f9-badd9c0d6a6c Article (Published version) Public Impact_of_changes_in_the_wind_regim.pdf 3910521 application/pdf CC BY-NC-ND-4.0 6ed9eedc6f14756f8355c127684cb5b41c537d0a604dbdbd314d9912ae0bbe73 Vignette Public Screenshot 2026-03-10 at 7.00.21 PM.png 248580 image/png openAccess Centres et instituts / Institut des sciences de l'environnement

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Impact of changes in the wind regime on the Caspian sea level fluctuation and its relationship with SOI and NAO	Scientific reports			2025	7	57

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Safarov, Elnur