Inequality and social unrest in India

Article Article scientifique Article Inequality and social unrest in India eng 2026-09 author Couttenier Mathieu 845470 author Lucchetti Jérémy 788145 Recherche et enseignement GSEM (RESEM) author Vandewalle Lore 0000-0002-2277-2621 951735 107418 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107418 0305-750X https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0305750X26001075 We show that inequality can lead to social unrest in rural India. We develop a theoretical framework in which civilians rationally engage in social unrest to oppose the (unfair) distribution of surplus by the elite. Our model predicts that the likelihood of observing social unrest in a village increases with the sum of distances between the (log) average and the lowest incomes. We test this prediction using unique microdata on bank account information covering 2197 Indian villages. Guided by our theoretical framework, we propose an instrumental variable strategy based on the idea that positive water shocks disproportionately benefit the highest incomes in a village. Our analysis then shows that a 10% increase in our inequality measure leads to a 6.5% rise in the unconditional probability of social unrest in a given village and month. Inequality Social unrest Development Redistribution Dewey 330 114 Institute of Economics and Econometrics S2 false World development 205 dea2073f-f029-4979-b330-f6337c2eeb6b Article (Published version) Public 1-s2.0-S0305750X26001075-main.pdf 2437201 application/pdf CC BY-4.0 580c832270757f4b866dc41d149c114fb47d9f7949c89bdb0e65ab12b42c9b3b openAccess Faculté d'économie et de management / Institute of Economics and Econometrics

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Inequality and social unrest in India	World development			2026	3	4

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