Estimation of the number of people affected by post COVID-19 condition in Switzerland in 2023 : a mathematical model

Article Article scientifique Article Estimation of the number of people affected by post COVID-19 condition in Switzerland in 2023 : a mathematical model eng 2025-06-18 2025-09 author Estill Janne Anton Markus Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China. Electronic address: janne.estill@unige.ch. 873331 Institut de santé globale (COSPR) author Belayneh Emneteab Gezahagn Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland. 932849 author Beale Sarah Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, United Kingdom. author Keiser Olivia 0000-0001-8191-2789 Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland. 873427 Institut de santé globale (COSPR) 107963 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107963 40541769 1201-9712 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001870 Objectives: We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of post COVID-19 condition (presence of symptoms related to a SARS-CoV-2 infection at least 3 months earlier) in Switzerland in 2023 using mathematical modeling. Methods: We constructed a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, extended with a module to calculate incidence and prevalence of post COVID-19 condition stratified by symptom cluster (fatigue, neuropsychiatric, and cardiopulmonary). We explored different scenarios to account for the uncertainty in model parameters and reported the mean value with a full range of results. Results: From October to December 2023, the model projected 61,300 (range across scenarios: 7900-195,000) new cases of post COVID-19 in Switzerland. The number of individuals with prevalent post COVID-19 remained stable during the year, decreasing minimally from 386,900 (87,500-930,600) in June to 380,800 (62,100-990,800) in December 2023. Neuropsychiatric disorders were the most common symptoms. About half of the individuals with post COVID-19 condition at the end of 2023 had been affected by the symptoms by more than 6 months. Conclusions: At least 1% of the Swiss population is affected by the long-term consequences of COVID-19, and this proportion is likely to be multiple times higher. The prevalence is expected to remain at a high level also in the future. Mathematical model Post COVID-19 condition Switzerland Humans COVID-19 / epidemiology COVID-19 / complications Switzerland / epidemiology Prevalence SARS-CoV-2 Models, Theoretical Incidence Fatigue / epidemiology Dewey 613 European Commission ENDING COVID 19 VARIANTS OF CONCERN THROUGH COHORT STUDIES: END-VOC 101046314 END-VOC EU HE 66 Institut de santé globale 22A1 false 1246 Maladies infectieuses et modèles mathématiques 988 International journal of infectious diseases 158 4565d383-aafd-4376-a07e-dc06781b3e81 Article (Published version) Public Estill_IntJInfect_Dis_2025.pdf 2597828 application/pdf CC BY-4.0 8b4265f0fb5b4af7f908a005954efdecf7d829a99ea895f30c450501549fe8ad b4521990-7cc3-45a6-b4b6-f5c724c0e035 Supplemental data Public 1-s2.0-S1201971225001870-mmc1.docx 122791 application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document 3c177e7c3b025a2eda0b667439d194e5354a1d0052b77d2e8d757bae1b762ed7 openAccess Faculté de médecine / Section de médecine clinique / Département de santé et médecine communautaires / Institut de santé globale

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Estimation of the number of people affected by post COVID-19 condition in Switzerland in 2023 : a mathematical model	International journal of infectious diseases			2025	14	128

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Belayneh, Emneteab Gezahagn