Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency

Article Article scientifique Article Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency eng 2023-07-05 author Shen Hui 923930 Forel Communs (FOREL) author Wen Xin 0000-0001-6479-0126 949217 Forel Communs (FOREL) author Trutnevyte Evelina 0000-0002-1716-6192 892077 Forel Communs (FOREL) 1-13 100111 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100111 2666-2787 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2666278723000181 <p>Energy projections are of great importance to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/energy-policy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">energy policies</a> but have consistently shown noticeable and repeated errors, and thus require accuracy assessment for improvement. International Energy Outlook (IEO) of the US Energy Information Administration and World Energy Outlook (WEO) of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/international-energy-agency" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">International Energy Agency</a> publish widely used energy projections, whose accuracy for China – the largest energy consuming economy and carbon dioxide emitter – has been rarely explored. This study investigates accuracy of China's reference energy projections in the annual reports of IEO and WEO from 2004 to 2019. Results show that most projections in IEO and WEO underestimated China's total energy consumption, particularly over longer projection horizons. The use of coal, natural gas and renewable energy tended to be underestimated, and nuclear energy was overestimated. The errors of industry and transport sectors were comparable and higher than for the other sectors. WEO showed substantially better accuracy than IEO in projections of total energy consumption, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/primary-energy-resource" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">primary energy resources</a> (except for nuclear energy) and end-use sectors. Projection horizon, errors in projected population's size, oil price and gross domestic product per capita were four leading factors related to the projection errors and hence they require particular attention in future modeling. For policy makers, this study shows that, if IEO and WEO projections are used to guide the policy making, China needs more aggressive policies in order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal.</p> Energy projections Accuracy Energy system modeling Model evaluation International energy outlook World energy outlook Dewey 550 Dewey 333.7-333.9 Swiss National Science Foundation Accuracy of long-range national energy projections (ACCURACY) 186834 CH Careers 41 Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau 153 18 Institut des sciences de l'environnement 0DB false 1245 FORE10 Renewable Energy Systems 938 ISE Pôle Sciences 945 ISE Energie Energy and climate change 4 04fefbc1-3e21-4929-a049-ced46e40e488 Article (Published version) Public 1-s2.0-S2666278723000181-main.pdf 3328827 application/pdf CC BY-4.0 c3ae6438c82f9a834f91b8ae9d5b6ee043260201b22cac54b10ff8c56fbc9457 openAccess Faculté des sciences / Section des sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement / Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau Centres et instituts / Institut des sciences de l'environnement

Title	Published in	Access level	OA Policy	Year	Views	Downloads

Accuracy assessment of energy projections for China by Energy Information Administration and International Energy Agency	Energy and climate change			2023	270	294

Archive ouverte UNIGE

Shen, Hui

account_balance UNIGE affiliation entities

UNIGE research groups

UNIGE affiliation entities