Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy

Article Article scientifique Article Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy eng 2022-04-01 2022-04-01 author Bonadonna Costanza 0000-0002-2368-2193 636612 author Asgary Ali author Romerio-Giudici Franco 29660 author Zulemyan Taïs 776425 author Frischknecht Corine 0000-0002-3929-1154 28271 author Cristiani Chiara author Rosi Mauro author Gregg Chris 664595 author Biasse Sébastien 0000-0002-1919-9473 583087 author Pistolesi Marco 0000-0002-5096-3708 author Menoni Scira 655636 author Ricciardi Antonio 1083-1108 10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022 1561-8633 https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/1083/2022/ Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using the small island of Vulcano (southern Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. For example, during the touristic (high) season between July and August, even though the overall duration is similar for both evacuation strategies, after ∼ 6 h about 96 % of people would be evacuated with a simultaneous evacuation, while only 86 % would be evacuated with a staged evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and of the starting period with respect to the touristic season. It reveals that if an evacuation lasting 3 to 6 months was initiated at the beginning or at the end of the touristic season (i.e. June or November), it would cause a very different economic impact on the tourism industry (about 78 %–88 % and 2 %–7 % of the total annual turnover, respectively). Our results show how the assessment of evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact carried out in a pre-disaster context helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that characterizes crises. Dewey 550 Swiss National Science Foundation FROM VOLCANIC HAZARD TO RISK ASSESSMENT IZSEZ0_181030 CH Science communication 42 Département des sciences de la Terre 154 false 667 Physical Volcanology and Geological Risk Natural hazards and earth system sciences 22 3 c4796cc9-4753-4ee7-9496-beb927c200ef Article (Published version) Public Bonadonna-etal-2022-NHESS.pdf 7300880 application/pdf openAccess Faculté des sciences / Section des sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement / Département des sciences de la Terre

Title	Published in	Access level	OA Policy	Year	Views	Downloads

Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy	Natural hazards and earth system sciences			2022	234	270

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