Climate change and agricultural water resources: A vulnerability assessment of the Black Sea catchment

Article Article scientifique Article Climate change and agricultural water resources: A vulnerability assessment of the Black Sea catchment eng 2015 author Baer Roger 720907 author Rouholahnedjad E. author Rahman Kazi 714458 author Abbaspour K.C. author Lehmann Anthony 0000-0002-8279-8567 28253 57-69 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.04.008 1462-9011 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901114000720 Agriculture in the Black Sea catchment is responsible for a considerable share of the area's total water withdrawal and the majority of its total water consumption. It therefore plays a key role in sustainable water resources management. However, in the future water resources will be exposed to climate change. This assessment aims at identifying the most vulnerable regions and to explain the reasons of this vulnerability. It is based on a combination of the well-known Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response framework (DPSIR) and the vulnerability concept as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Three distinctive climate change scenarios are used to assess their impacts on water resources for agriculture: (1) an increase in temperature; (2) a decrease in precipitation; and (3) a combination of the first and second scenarios. The data for this assessment is derived from a SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The results show that the regions of the Black Sea catchment are impacted by climate change differently. Some countries benefit from climate change (e.g., Turkey, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Bulgaria) while others will encounter considerably worse agro-climatic conditions in the future (e.g., Montenegro, Austria, Bosnia–Herzegovina). Additionally, natural plant growth conditions mostly improve due to more suitable temperature conditions. In contrast, the deteriorating agricultural conditions mainly result from a diminishing irrigation potential that is caused by reduced precipitation. The conclusion emphasises the important role of the legal framework as well as more sustainable agronomic practices and proposes improvements for future assessment methods in this research field. Vulnerability assessment Hydrological modelling Climate change Agricultural water resources Black Sea Dewey 333.7-333.9 Dewey 550 European Commission Building Capacity for a Black Sea Catchment Observation and Assessment System supporting Sustainable Development 226740 enviroGRIDS EU FP7 18 Institut des sciences de l'environnement 0DB 41 Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau 153 false 673 Envirospace Lab 942 ISE Biodiversité 943 ISE Climat 944 ISE Eau 941 ISE Pôle Informatique environnementale 938 ISE Pôle Sciences 1057 TIGERS Environmental science & policy 46 79fd7b88-7277-4fcc-865e-4bfcd92ae763 Article (Published version) Restricted Baer.pdf 2672381 application/pdf restrictedAccess Centres et instituts / Institut des sciences de l'environnement Faculté des sciences / Section des sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement / Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau

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Climate change and agricultural water resources: A vulnerability assessment of the Black Sea catchment	Environmental science & policy			2015	1,061	12

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Baer, Roger