How Vulnerable Are Plants to Land‐Use and Climate Changes? Comparing Current and Future Distributions at the Regional Scale According to Native and Red List Statuses

Article Article scientifique Article How Vulnerable Are Plants to Land‐Use and Climate Changes? Comparing Current and Future Distributions at the Regional Scale According to Native and Red List Statuses eng 2025-04-17 2025-07 author Sanguet Arthur https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4452-3914 Institute for Environmental Sciences, enviroSPACE Lab University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland 883689 author Wyler Nicolas Conservatory and Botanical Garden of Geneva Chambésy Switzerland 27862 author Petitpierre Blaise Info Flora, C/o Conservatory and Botanical Garden of Geneva Chambésy Switzerland 540154 author Martin Pascal Jule André Conservatory and Botanical Garden of Geneva Chambésy Switzerland 531311 Département des sciences végétales (BIVEG) author Price Michelle Conservatory and Botanical Garden of Geneva Chambésy Switzerland 556219 Département des sciences végétales (BIVEG) author Adde Antoine University of Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland author Lehmann Anthony 0000-0002-8279-8567 Institute for Environmental Sciences, enviroSPACE Lab University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland 28253 Forel Communs (FOREL) e15132 10.1111/jbi.15132 0305-0270 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jbi.15132 Aim: Future species distributions were modelled to assess the distributional changes of 1692 plant species according to several scenarios. Species vulnerability was calculated according to their red list and native statuses using a new index to better understand the most vulnerable groups of species to future conditions and improve conservation actions. Location: Greater Geneva region between France and Switzerland. Time Period: From present to 2050. Major Taxa Studied A total of 1692 species of plants from all major groups. Methods: Two different species distribution models were created to combine the effect of climate change at the continental scale and land‐use changes at the regional scale in 2050. Two scenarios of climate change were used (optimistic and pessimistic) and one business‐as‐usual land‐use–land‐cover scenario. Current and future distributions were compared using six spatial indicators combined to create a new vulnerability index to global changes. Results: More than one‐third of all species assessed showed at least a moderate vulnerability, and more than 10% showed a high vulnerability to global changes, mostly composed of native species. Most exotic species showed moderate benefits to global changes, and one‐third were associated with high benefits. Pessimistic scenarios of climate change exacerbated the trends identified under optimistic scenarios and were associated with higher vulnerability for native species and higher benefits for exotic ones. No clear pattern was found when comparing species vulnerability according to their red list status, questioning its ability to preserve species in the long term. Main Conclusions: Native species are more vulnerable to global changes, while exotic species benefit from them. Climate is the main driver of future distributional changes in the study area. Current levels of threat fail to inform us of species vulnerability to future conditions, questioning their relevance and supporting the assessments of similar studies to identify the most vulnerable species. Climatic scenarios Conservation Exotic species Global changes Native species SDM Vulnerability Dewey 550 Dewey 333.7-333.9 Dewey 580 41 Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau 153 18 Institut des sciences de l'environnement 0DB 45 Département des sciences végétales 163 false 941 ISE Pôle Informatique environnementale 673 Envirospace Lab 942 ISE Biodiversité Journal of biogeography 52 7 9a2c668a-09d5-471e-bdc1-c2e260a1e9b9 Article (Published version) Restricted file.pdf 2337333 application/pdf f3fbf6cc6f46b9bcb611b2cb0a2386418112043ed0d980fab730bcab20b0f75c restrictedAccess Faculté des sciences / Section des sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement / Département F.-A. Forel des sciences de l'environnement et de l'eau Centres et instituts / Institut des sciences de l'environnement Faculté des sciences / Section de biologie / Département des sciences végétales

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How Vulnerable Are Plants to Land‐Use and Climate Changes? Comparing Current and Future Distributions at the Regional Scale According to Native and Red List Statuses	Journal of biogeography			2025	63	0

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