An integrated airborne transmission risk assessment model for respiratory viruses : short- and long-range contributions

Article Article scientifique Article An integrated airborne transmission risk assessment model for respiratory viruses : short- and long-range contributions eng 2025-02-26 2025-02 author Jorge Henriques Andre 0000-0003-1521-3423 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland.,Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland. 430245 author Jia Wei 0000-0001-7962-1376 Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. author Aleixo Luis 0000-0002-8829-6509 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland. author Mounet Nicolas 0000-0002-1433-1017 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland. author Fontana Luca 0000-0002-8614-4114 Strategic Health Operations, Operations Support and Logistic, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.,Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, Università degli studi di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale (UNICAS), Cassino, Italy. author Simniceanu Alice 0000-0003-4068-6177 Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.,Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. 977272 author Devine James 0000-0002-2019-1532 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland. author Elson Philip CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland. author Azzopardi Gabriella 0000-0001-7257-7827 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland. author Rognlien Markus CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland.,NTNU (Norwegian University of Science and Technology), Torgarden, Norway. author Andreini Marco 0000-0001-8474-4397 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland. author Tarocco Nicola 0000-0002-2227-1229 CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), Geneva, Switzerland. author Keiser Olivia 0000-0001-8191-2789 Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland. 873427 Institut de santé globale (COSPR) author Li Yuguo 0000-0002-2281-4529 Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. author Tang Julian W 0000-0002-4963-1028 Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK. 20240740 10.1098/rsif.2024.0740 39999884 1742-5662 PMC11858786 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2024.0740 This study presents an advanced airborne transmission risk assessment model that integrates both short- and long-range routes in the spread of respiratory viruses, building upon the CERN Airborne Model for Indoor Risk Assessment (CAiMIRA) and aligned with the new World Health Organization (WHO) terminology. Thanks to a two-stage exhaled jet approach, the model accurately simulates short-range exposures, thereby improving infection risk predictions across diverse indoor settings. Key findings reveal that in patient wards, the short-range viral dose is 10-fold higher than the long-range component, highlighting the critical role of close proximity interactions. Implementation of FFP2 respirators resulted in a remarkable 13-fold reduction in viral dose, underscoring the effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE). Additionally, the model demonstrated that an 8 h exposure in a poorly ventilated office can equate to the risk of a 15 min face-to-face, mask-less interaction, emphasizing the importance of physical distancing and source control. We also found in high-risk or low-occupancy settings, that secondary transmission is driven more by overall epidemic trends than by the presence of individual superspreaders. Monte Carlo simulations across various scenarios, including classrooms and offices, validate the model's robustness in optimizing infection prevention strategies. These findings support targeted interventions for short- and long-range exposure to reduce airborne transmission. CERN Airborne Model for Indoor Risk Assessment COVID-19 Airborne transmission Modelling Respiratory virus Risk assessment Dewey 613 66 Institut de santé globale 22A1 false 1246 Maladies infectieuses et modèles mathématiques 988 https://zenodo.org/records/13353375 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4160265 https://rs.figshare.com/collections/Supplementary_material_from_An_integrated_airborne_transmission_risk_assessment_model_for_respiratory_viruses_short-_and_long-range_contributions_/7637346 Journal of the Royal Society interface 22 223 4912eecf-5b96-413f-8b24-8a7f50de0cdf Article (Published version) Public henriques-et-al-2025-an-integrated-.pdf 2222221 application/pdf CC BY-4.0 c46aa28753fd85174980d2a419fc8ebe004315995430d8f21f453e58c8007055 openAccess Faculté de médecine / Section de médecine clinique / Département de santé et médecine communautaires / Institut de santé globale

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An integrated airborne transmission risk assessment model for respiratory viruses : short- and long-range contributions	Journal of the Royal Society interface			2025	15	156

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Jorge Henriques, Andre

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