Scenario-based forecast of the evolution of 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Article Article scientifique Article Scenario-based forecast of the evolution of 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) eng 2026-01-12 author Caricchi Luca 0000-0001-9051-2621 782324 Services communs du département des sciences de la terre (DETCO) author Lormand Charline 413556 Services communs du département des sciences de la terre (DETCO) author Carlino Stefano 0000-0002-3924-3881 author Pivetta Tommaso author Simpson Guy 653721 Services communs du département des sciences de la terre (DETCO) 37 10.1038/s43247-025-03140-0 2662-4435 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03140-0 Campi Flegrei last erupted in 1538 and periods of increased seismicity, gas emission and ground deformation occurred in the 50’s, 70’s 80’s and are ongoing since 2005. The eventual culmination of the unrest in an eruption, would directly impact on 2 million people living in the region, making it of critical concern for scientists, authorities and the public. Here, we use existing data, thermal modelling and calculations of the physical properties of magma, to provide plausible future scenarios, under the assumption that magma injection at 4-5 km depth is responsible for the unrest episodes recorded since 1950. Our calculations suggest that a critically pressurised reservoir containing potentially eruptible magma is present today at ~ 4 km depth. However, a major impediment to eruption is the reservoir volume, which would need 2-3 decades to grow to the size of the one that fed the last eruption of Campi Flegrei in 1538. Dewey 550 Swiss National Science Foundation Data-driven imaging of volcanic plumbing systems 216582 CH 42 Département des sciences de la Terre 154 false 665 Petrology and Volcanology 1272 Crustal Deformation and Fluid Flow 672 Earth Surface Dynamics Communications earth & environment 7 1 cadbe18a-bedf-4b70-9d17-fcfdb7dbab10 Article (Published version) Public Article_scientifique_from_crossref.pdf 881661 application/pdf CC BY-4.0 c4ff4db60a80889cdcb658d6fcba37f296089b8e767602d0379f1db75f59952c openAccess Faculté des sciences / Section des sciences de la Terre et de l'Environnement / Département des sciences de la Terre

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Scenario-based forecast of the evolution of 75 years of unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)	Communications earth & environment			2026	29	282

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