This cross-lagged-panel study tested the validity of the German version of the back beliefs questionnaire (BBQ) in predicting pain in the shoulders, neck, and back. A random sample of 2860 individuals participated at baseline, and 73% responded at one-year follow-up. Structural equation modeling was used to carry out a model comparison to evaluate whether paths differed between individuals with and without initial back pain and between those who exercised at baseline and those who did not. Factor analysis showed eight of the nine original items loaded on the expected common factor. High BBQ scores at baseline significantly predicted an increase in shoulder, neck, and back pain in individuals with current back pain (β = .11, p < .05), but not in other respondents (β = .02, p = .259). Similarly, baseline BBQ scores predicted the increase in shoulder, neck, and back pain among those who did not exercise (β = .15, p < .05), but not in those who did (β = .04, ns). The risk of negative back beliefs preceding an increase in shoulder, neck, and back pain was greatest for those with current back pain who did not exercise (β = .29, p < .05). The findings confirmed the validity of the German BBQ. Cognitive behavioral interventions should address pessimistic back beliefs in high-risk groups. Pessimistic back beliefs and lack of exercise: A longitudinal risk study in relation to shoulder, neck, and back pain. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273066931_Pessimistic_back_beliefs_and_lack_of_exercise_A_longitudinal_risk_study_in_relation_to_shoulder_neck_and_back_pain [accessed Oct 10 2017].