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Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?

Serrano, Camillo
Published in Journal of real estate finance and economics. 2010, vol. 41, no. 2, p. 170-192
Collection Open Access - Licence nationale Springer
Abstract This paper examines whether the predictability of securitized real estate returns differs from that of stock returns. It also provides a cross-country comparison of securitized real estate return predictability. In contrast to most of the literature on this issue, the analysis is not based on a multifactor asset pricing framework as such analyses may bias the results.We use a time series approach and thus create a level playing field to compare the predictability of the two asset classes. Forecasts are performed with ARMAand ARMA–EGARCH models and evaluated by comparing the entire empirical distributions of prediction errors, as well as with a trading strategy. The results, based on daily data for the 1990–2007 period, show that securitized real estate returns are generally more predictable than stock returns in countries with mature and well established REIT regimes. ARMA–EGARCH models are found to have portfolio outperformance potential even in the presence of transaction costs, with generally better results for securitized real estate than for stocks.
Keywords PredictabilityTime series modelsARMA–EGARCHREITsSecuritized real estate
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Article (Published version) (362 Kb) - public document Free access
Research group Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI)
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HOESLI, Martin E., SERRANO, Camillo. Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?. In: Journal of real estate finance and economics, 2010, vol. 41, n° 2, p. 170-192. doi: 10.1007/s11146-008-9162-y https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:78558

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Deposited on : 2015-12-11

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