Scientific article
Open access

Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?

Published inJournal of real estate finance and economics, vol. 41, no. 2, p. 170-192
  • Open Access - Licence nationale Springer
Publication date2010

This paper examines whether the predictability of securitized real estate returns differs from that of stock returns. It also provides a cross-country comparison of securitized real estate return predictability. In contrast to most of the literature on this issue, the analysis is not based on a multifactor asset pricing framework as such analyses may bias the results.We use a time series approach and thus create a level playing field to compare the predictability of the two asset classes. Forecasts are performed with ARMAand ARMA–EGARCH models and evaluated by comparing the entire empirical distributions of prediction errors, as well as with a trading strategy. The results, based on daily data for the 1990–2007 period, show that securitized real estate returns are generally more predictable than stock returns in countries with mature and well established REIT regimes. ARMA–EGARCH models are found to have portfolio outperformance potential even in the presence of transaction costs, with generally better results for securitized real estate than for stocks.

  • Predictability
  • Time series models
  • REITs
  • Securitized real estate
Citation (ISO format)
HOESLI, Martin E., SERRANO, Camillo. Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns? In: Journal of real estate finance and economics, 2010, vol. 41, n° 2, p. 170–192. doi: 10.1007/s11146-008-9162-y
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Article (Published version)
ISSN of the journal0895-5638

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