Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data

Published inMolecular biology and evolution, vol. 29, no. 1, p. 347-357
Publication date2012
Abstract

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Keywords
  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • Bayes Theorem
  • HIV Infections/epidemiology/virology
  • HIV-1/genetics
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical
  • Phylogeny
Citation (ISO format)
STADLER, Tanja et al. Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data. In: Molecular biology and evolution, 2012, vol. 29, n° 1, p. 347–357. doi: 10.1093/molbev/msr217
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
Journal ISSN0737-4038
541views
359downloads

Technical informations

Creation20/07/2015 14:27:00
First validation20/07/2015 14:27:00
Update time14/03/2023 23:31:42
Status update14/03/2023 23:31:41
Last indexation25/11/2024 13:18:23
All rights reserved by Archive ouverte UNIGE and the University of GenevaunigeBlack