fr
Rapport de recherche
Accès libre
Anglais

Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data

Contributeurs/tricesLahiani, A.; Scaillet, Olivierorcid
Collection
  • Cahiers de recherche; 2008.10
Date de publication2008
Résumé

Macroeconomic time series often involve a threshold effect in their ARMA representation, and exhibit long memory features. In this paper we introduce a new class of threshold ARFIMA models to account for this. The threshold effect is introduced in the autoregressive and/or the fractional integration parameters, and can be tested for using LM tests. Monte Carlo experiments show the desirable finite sample size and power of the test with an exact maximum likelihood estimator of the long memory parameter. Simulations also show that a model selection strategy is available to discriminate between the competing threshold ARFIMA models. The methodology applied to US unemployment rate data where we find a significant threshold effect in the ARFIMA representation and a better forecasting performance over TAR and symmetric ARFIMA models.

Mots-clés
  • Threshold ARFIMA
  • LM test
  • Asymmetric time series
Citation (format ISO)
LAHIANI, A., SCAILLET, Olivier. Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models: Application to US unemployment rate data. 2008
Fichiers principaux (1)
Report
accessLevelPublic
Identifiants
  • PID : unige:5716
638vues
776téléchargements

Informations techniques

Création15.04.2010 12:19:25
Première validation15.04.2010 12:19:25
Heure de mise à jour14.03.2023 15:26:17
Changement de statut14.03.2023 15:26:17
Dernière indexation02.05.2024 11:31:21
All rights reserved by Archive ouverte UNIGE and the University of GenevaunigeBlack