Venture capital, as the capital invested in the development of projects and products with growth potential and innovation ability, plays an essential role in advancing China's high-tech industry. Since the 1980s, with the gradual improvement of China's capital market system, the venture capital market has also been developing at a good pace. Problems that arise in the practice of venture capital have attracted the academic community widely to explore the factors that affect venture capital. Macroeconomic fluctuation is an important factor affecting the economic management of enterprises, which also directly affects the decision-making of venture capital institutions. However, there is still no definite explanation to the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuation and venture capital. Therefore, in this dissertation, the changes of venture capital returns are analyzed under the background of macroeconomic fluctuations in China. From the perspective of real option theory, the value of real options obtained by venture capital varies with the economic stages, which directly affects the return when venture capital withdrawals. It is of great significance to figure out the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and venture capital returns for China to make macroeconomic policies and promote the development of a sound venture capital market.

Studies of the impact of China's macroeconomic fluctuations on venture capital returns are made in this dissertation through theoretical analysis and empirical tests. According to the research, the following conclusions are drawn.

Firstly, this dissertation discusses the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on venture capital returns. Based on the economic cycle theory and the real option theory, this dissertation analyzes the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the returns of venture capital. When the economy is in prosperity and expansion, there are relatively more capital opportunities in the market, and correspondingly, there are more capital to supply. From the perspective of investment material option theory, even though investors have purchased a call option through venture capital, the return will not meet their expectations due to the decline in investment uncertainty. When the economy is in recession, with the rising uncertainty and information asymmetry, the market becomes more risk-averse, banks lend less, investors hold more, making financing more difficult. However, from the point of real options theory, Myers (1977) said that when facing greater uncertainty, venture capital institutions can obtain higher expected returns by buying call options of high-tech enterprises. In other words, when economic fluctuations decrease, the returns of venture capital increase.

Secondly, this dissertation analyzes the influence of macroeconomic fluctuations on the returns of venture capital with empirical method, and the macroeconomic fluctuations have a remarkable negative impact on the returns of venture capital. It shows that with the macroeconomy goes down, the return of venture capital climbs up. The results of empirical analysis verify the conclusions of theoretical analysis in this dissertation.

Thirdly, empirical tests are conducted in this dissertation to study the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the return of venture capital in the four regions of China. Macroeconomic fluctuations in the four regions all have [...].