en
Scientific article
Open access
English

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

Published inEmerging infectious diseases, vol. 26, no. 11, e201074
Publication date2020-11
Abstract

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

eng
Keywords
  • 2019 novel coronavirus disease
  • COVID-19
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • World Health Organization
  • Coronavirus
  • Epidemiological parameters
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
  • Viruses
  • Zoonoses
Affiliation Not a UNIGE publication
Funding
  • Medical Research Council - [MC_PC_19012]
  • UK Research and Innovation - MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis [MR/R015600/1]
Citation (ISO format)
BIGGERSTAFF, Matthew et al. Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19. In: Emerging infectious diseases, 2020, vol. 26, n° 11, p. e201074. doi: 10.3201/eid2611.201074
Main files (1)
Article (Published version)
Secondary files (1)
Identifiers
ISSN of the journal1080-6040
13views
2downloads

Technical informations

Creation05/29/2024 8:31:19 AM
First validation07/05/2024 2:49:47 PM
Update time07/05/2024 2:49:47 PM
Status update07/05/2024 2:49:47 PM
Last indexation07/05/2024 2:50:07 PM
All rights reserved by Archive ouverte UNIGE and the University of GenevaunigeBlack