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Dynamic Measurement and Research of China's House Price Bubbles

ContributorsZhou, Xin
Number of pages40
Imprimatur date2020
Defense date2020
Abstract

Real estate is the pillar industry of our national economy. The stability of house price is related to the stable and harmonious development of national economy and people's lives. It is the important premise of stabilizing house price and the basis of implementing macro-control policy to judge whether the house price has a bubble or not. Based on the research results of related literature at home and abroad, this paper uses the housing price-income ratio and the multiple linear regression analysis to dynamically measure the house price bubble of four major cities in China from 2010 to 2018, in order to compare and analyze the macro index trend and bubble trend of different cities, and to analyze the difference of the house price bubble of different cities. The results show that: (1) There are huge differences in bubble prices in different regions of China. In the nine years from 2010 to 2018, the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai and Nanjing has already seen a housing bubble, and the price bubble in Beijing has steadily declined year by year; Nanjing's housing price bubble is rising faster. If effective measures are not taken, the housing bubble may deteriorate further; There is no housing bubble in Chongqing's real estate market and the phenomenon of house price being underestimated in most years. Investing in Chongqing's real estate market will be a good choice. (2) According to the empirical results, this paper proposes that when formulating the relevant real estate regulation and control policies, we should consider both the generally applicable macro-control policy and the regional characteristic differential control policy, so as to take into account the overall situation and adjust measures to local conditions at the same time. For example, starting from the innovation of institutional supply, we should develop the housing rental market and establish a long-term mechanism to control the rise of house prices. One policy for one city, one policy for the city. We should improve the land supply mechanism of the city with serious price bubbles and optimize land finance, while continuing to implement the policy of restriction, restriction and price fixing.

eng
Keywords
  • House Price Bubble
  • Housing Price-Income Ratio
  • Multiple Linear Regression
  • Regulation and Control Policy
Citation (ISO format)
ZHOU, Xin. Dynamic Measurement and Research of China’s House Price Bubbles. 2020.
Main files (1)
Thesis
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
  • PID : unige:178423
  • Thesis number : 0051
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