Since China's real estate market-oriented reform, China's real estate industry has maintained a high growth rate, which has gradually become an important role in the operation of China's national economy. However, a series of macro data shows that a certain degree of bubbles has appeared in China's real estate market, which is embodied in the rapid rise of the housing prices in big cities and the vacancy rate in small towns, which poses a great threat to the stable development of the economy and society. Therefore, how to measure the bubble risk of China's real estate market and how to use macro control policies to resolve risks are of great theoretical and practical value.
For this reason, this paper first summarizes the previous studies of the real estate bubble and macro-control policies and builds a foam measurement model and a regression model of the macro policy impact effect. Specifically, this paper selects housing price growth rate /GDP growth rate, construction area / completed area, real estate market investment / national fixed asset investment, housing price income ratio, real estate enterprise loan amount / financial institutions loan amount of our country as five indicators to measure the real estate market bubble. It not only depicts the evolution of China's real estate market bubble from a single indicator dimension, but also constructs a comprehensive index of real estate prices by means of the coefficient of variation. Then, this paper selects fiscal expenditure and land transfer fees as fiscal policy variables, money supply and interest rates as monetary policy variables, and analyzes the impact of these variables on the real estate market price.
The results show that there is a slight bubble in China's real estate market. In the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control, we should continue to adhere to the policy concept of "housing instead of speculation". At the same time, the three indicators of land transfer fee, money supply and interest rate will have a significant impact on the price of the real estate market. Therefore, in the future practice, the state can achieve the effect of macro-control of the real estate market by guiding these three variables.
