After more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China's GDP has become the second highest in the world. China's economic growth rate has changed from high-speed growth to medium high-speed growth. The mode of economic development has changed from extensive growth based on scale speed to intensive growth based on quality and efficiency. The economic structure has changed from focusing on incremental capacity expansion to in-depth adjustment based on stock adjustment and optimization of both. The driving force of economic development From tradition to information growth. At the same time, the fourth information technology revolution, represented by big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain and other information technologies, has come. All countries in the world have begun to seek to occupy the commanding heights in this field, so as to obtain the dominant position in a new round of technological revolution.
China's economy has entered a new normal, "medium and high speed, excellent structure, new power and multiple challenges" will become the main features of economic operation in the next five years. In the next five years, the three major driving forces of China's economic growth, namely, foreign demand, manufacturing industry and real estate, will be gradually exhausted. In particular, the downward risk of asset prices represented by real estate will increase, which will bring greater uncertainty to the judgment of China's external environment in the future.
In this context, China's economy has entered the new normal stage. The state has successively issued a series of laws to limit the overheated real estate investment, and vigorously supports the development of high-tech industries. The extensive growth of the real estate industry driven by investment in the past has been unsustainable, and major real estate enterprises and local investment groups have also begun to face debt risk and liquidity crisis. Therefore, the risk assessment, analysis and development strategy research of real estate enterprises under the background of new normal economy has become an important topic for further research.
Based on the current situation of China's real estate industry, China's future economic development trend, and China's population structure, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the real estate risk based on DEMATEL to identify and analyze the influencing factors of China's urban real estate risk, and explores its internal risk factors. Further use fn-chk method to measure and analyze real estate zombie enterprises in China, and identify the crisis in the industry as early as possible. On this basis, the risk assessment method of urban real estate market based on multiple regression contingency scoring method (MRWS) is adopted.
Finally, based on the comprehensive consideration of national policy, social situation, population structure and other factors, and according to the above risk assessment and analysis of China's real estate enterprises and industries, this paper puts forward a set of corresponding risk control and sustainable and orderly development strategies, in order to provide theoretical basis and strategies for the sound and orderly development of the real estate industry in the context of the new normal of China's economy Guidance.
