Background: No biological marker has been identified that predicts the development of lipodystrophy (LD). We investigated whether metabolic and body composition parameters could predict the development of LD over 2 years in adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods: We used stored plasma collected at baseline and weeks 12, 24 and 48 from adults initiating combination ART. Adipocytokine, inflammatory cytokine, lipid and glycaemic parameters were measured and related to subsequent lipoatrophy (loss of limb fat mass of at least 2 kg from weeks 24 to 96 by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) and an increase in visceral adipose tissue (VAT; an increase of at least 18 cm(2) from baseline to week 48 by abdominal computed tomography). Risk factors associated with limb fat loss and VAT gain were analysed by logistic regression.

Results: Fifty-four HIV-infected, treatment-naïve adults were included in the study: 53 (98%) of them were men, and they had a median age of 39 years [interquartile range (IQR) 34-48 years] and a median body mass index of 22.6 kg/m(2) (IQR 20-24.8 kg/m(2)). In multivariate analysis, a higher baseline limb fat percentage, and a 1 mmol/L increase in plasma leptin levels during the first 6 months of ART, independently predicted a peripheral fat loss of > or = 2 kg [odds ratio (OR) 2.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-6.41; OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.34-7.35, respectively). VAT changes showed a borderline association with high baseline tumour necrosis factor-alpha levels and hip circumference (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07; OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.07-1.95, respectively).

Conclusions: In ART-naïve men, higher baseline limb fat and an early increase in leptin concentrations may predict the subsequent development of lipoatrophy. We did not find the same risk factors in the two different groups of patients with peripheral fat loss and central fat gain, suggesting a partially independent pathogenesis.