Objectives: Established visual brain MRI markers for dementia include hippocampal atrophy (mesio-temporal atrophy MTA), white matter lesions (Fazekas score), and number of cerebral microbleeds (CMBs). We assessed whether novel quantitative, artificial intelligence (AI)-based volumetric scores provide additional value in predicting subsequent cognitive decline in elderly controls.

Methods: A prospective study including 80 individuals (46 females, mean age 73.4 ± 3.5 years). 3T MR imaging was performed at baseline. Extensive neuropsychological assessment was performed at baseline and at 4.5-year follow-up. AI-based volumetric scores were derived from 3DT1: Alzheimer Disease Resemblance Atrophy Index (AD-RAI), Brain Age Gap Estimate (BrainAGE), and normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) index. Analyses included regression models between cognitive scores and imaging markers.

Results: AD-RAI score at baseline was associated with Corsi (visuospatial memory) decline (10.6% of cognitive variability in multiple regression models). After inclusion of MTA, CMB, and Fazekas scores simultaneously, the AD-RAI score remained as the sole valid predictor of the cognitive outcome explaining 16.7% of its variability. Its percentage reached 21.4% when amyloid positivity was considered an additional explanatory factor. BrainAGE score was associated with Trail Making B (executive functions) decrease (8.5% of cognitive variability). Among the conventional MRI markers, only the Fazekas score at baseline was positively related to the cognitive outcome (8.7% of cognitive variability). The addition of the BrainAGE score as an independent variable significantly increased the percentage of cognitive variability explained by the regression model (from 8.7 to 14%). The addition of amyloid positivity led to a further increase in this percentage reaching 21.8%.

Conclusions: The AI-based AD-RAI index and BrainAGE scores have limited but significant added value in predicting the subsequent cognitive decline in elderly controls when compared to the established visual MRI markers of brain aging, notably MTA, Fazekas score, and number of CMBs.

Key points: • AD-RAI score at baseline was associated with Corsi score (visuospatial memory) decline. • BrainAGE score was associated with Trail Making B (executive functions) decrease. • AD-RAI index and BrainAGE scores have limited but significant added value in predicting the subsequent cognitive decline in elderly controls when compared to the established visual MRI markers of brain aging, notably MTA, Fazekas score, and number of CMBs.