Doctoral thesis
OA Policy
English

An empirical study of the desirability and usability of model-based scenarios for informing energy and low-carbon transitions

ContributorsXexakis, Georgiosorcid
Number of pages362
Imprimatur date2022-06-02
Defense date2022-06-01
Abstract

Model-based scenario analysis is a key method for informing strategies of energy and low-carbon transitions. However, it remains unclear whether analyzed scenarios align with prominent perspectives from the wider public and whether scenario results are usable. In response, this thesis assessed the representation of citizen preferences in large scenario ensembles and the performance of various formats for scenario visualization in terms of supporting user understanding and engagement. Results showed that scenario ensembles for the 2035 electricity supply in France, Germany, Poland, Switzerland, and the European Union were only narrowly representative of citizen perspectives, underlining the need to consider informed and diverse citizen views in scenarios. Compared to most scenarios, most citizens preferred deeper decarbonization and/or denuclearization, increased electricity savings, and more renewable electricity. Among the tested visualization formats, none was consistently outperforming the rest. Nevertheless, customizing formats to user characteristics such as numeracy was shown to improve scenario usability.

Keywords
  • Energy scenarios
  • Electricity
  • Energy system models
  • Citizen preferences
  • Citizen engagement
  • Public acceptance
  • Usability evaluation
  • Visualization
  • Uncertainty
Funding
Citation (ISO format)
XEXAKIS, Georgios. An empirical study of the desirability and usability of model-based scenarios for informing energy and low-carbon transitions. Doctoral Thesis, 2022. doi: 10.13097/archive-ouverte/unige:162494
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Creation02/08/2022 21:54:00
First validation02/08/2022 21:54:00
Update time16/03/2023 08:06:52
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