Scientific article
OA Policy
English

Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Published inNature Climate Change, vol. 12, no. 5, p. 428-435
Publication date2022-05-09
First online date2022-05-09
Abstract

As they are gaining new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to Net Zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared to the use of single scenarios. Yet, several significant challenges have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges, and existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address them within a three-step approach: (i) pre-processing the ensemble, (ii) either selecting a few scenarios or analyzing the full ensemble, and (iii) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Funding
  • European Commission - Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making [821124]
Citation (ISO format)
GUIVARCH, Céline et al. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights. In: Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, n° 5, p. 428–435. doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x
Main files (1)
Article (Accepted version)
accessLevelPublic
Identifiers
Additional URL for this publicationhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01349-x
Journal ISSN1758-678X
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75downloads

Technical informations

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