UNIGE document Scientific Article
previous document  unige:157764  next document
add to browser collection
Title

Future scenarios for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: an age-structured model

Authors
Published in F1000Research. 2020, vol. 9, 646
Abstract The recent lifting of COVID-19 related restrictions in Switzerland causes uncertainty about the future of the epidemic. We developed a compartmental model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and projected the course of the epidemic until the end of year 2020 under various scenarios. The model was age-structured with three categories: children (0-17), adults (18-64) and seniors (65- years). Lifting all restrictions according to the plans disclosed by the Swiss federal authorities by mid-May resulted in a rapid rebound in the epidemic, with the peak expected in July. Measures equivalent to at least 76% reduction in all contacts were able to eradicate the epidemic; a 54% reduction in contacts could keep the intensive care unit occupancy under the critical level and delay the next wave until October. In scenarios where strong contact reductions were only applied in selected age groups, the epidemic could not be suppressed, resulting in an increased risk of a rebound in July, and another stronger wave in September. Future interventions need to cover all age groups to keep the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic under control.
Keywords COVID-19SARS-CoV-2SwitzerlandMathematical modelAdultAgedCOVID-19ChildEpidemicsHumansSARS-CoV-2Switzerland / epidemiology
Identifiers
PMID: 34631035
PMCID: PMC8477351
Full text
Structures
Research groups Groupe Flahault Antoine (945)
Maladies infectieuses et modèles mathématiques (988)
Project
Swiss National Science Foundation: PP00P3_163878
Citation
(ISO format)
ESTILL, Janne Anton Markus et al. Future scenarios for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: an age-structured model. In: F1000Research, 2020, vol. 9, p. 646. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.24497.2 https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:157764

106 hits

22 downloads

Update

Deposited on : 2022-01-07

Export document
Format :
Citation style :